Assessing Hourly Precipitation Forecast Skill with the Fractions Skill Score

Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following

Score-Based Bayesian Skill Learning

We extend the Bayesian skill rating system of TrueSkill to accommodate score-based match outcomes. TrueSkill has proven to be a very effective algorithm for matchmaking — the process of pairing competitors based on similar skill-level — in competitive online gaming. However, for the case of two teams/players, TrueSkill only learns from win, lose, or draw outcomes and cannot use additional match...

Relationship between forecast precipitation relative errors and skill scores: the case of rare event frequencies

This paper addresses the problem of the relationship between skill scores and forecast rainfall relative errors. The problem is approached by using synthetic time series of rainfall data representing the observations. It is assumed that the magnitude of the relative error is known. The forecasts are constructed by adding errors to the observations. We use a threshold to dichotomise forecasts an...

Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores

Diagnosing Sources of U.S. Seasonal Forecast Skill